Blending Economics (to LS Bunker) linked to its price. Over 2 mb/d of HSFO shifts to gasoil and VLSFO. Back in March, ClipperData unveiled its first forecast for marine fuel demand between 2020 and 2025. Crude oil Brent price forecast for next months and years. Please choose another time period or contract. Share price indices are calculated from the prices of common shares of companies traded on national or foreign stock exchanges. ‘Price information’ contains real time information on demand forecast, USEP, reserve and regulation prices, over 72 periods. The difficulty of enforcing the rules and the extra expense of compliance underpin this forecast. Demand for high-sulfur residual fuel oil for ship bunkers was 3.5 million barrels per day in 2018—out of 7 million barrels per d… In addition, our HSFO cracks remain slightly below market forwards (-$20/bbl vs. market forwards at -$17.50/bbl). Crude oil predictions and projections. $20.00 Bremen. $114/mt). While OPEC put noncompliance measured by illegal consumption of HSFO at around 30 percent, we expect something closer to 10 percent. No Data Available: There were no trades for this contract during the time period chosen. But we don’t expect scrubber uptake to reach a level where HSFO demand makes a full come back. We also assume that 50% of the small vessels (15% of fuel use or 0.4m bpd of HSFO) will not comply. In 2016, the International Marine Organization (IMO) agreed to limit the sulfur content in all marine fuels to 0.5 percent beginning in 2020, with the exception of fuel burned in Sulfur Emission Control Area regions, which are already at lower sulfur limits. Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. $20.00 Skagen. USGC HSFO was assessed at a discount of $29.19/b to Brent on November 13, and 3.5% FOB Rotterdam at a discount of $36.13/b to Brent on November 27, both all-time lows. BunkerEx has investigated where existing 3.5% HSFO bunker demand will go, how this will be replaced and what this means for prices. Create a CMEGroup.com Account: More features, more insights. 1% LSFO, although not compliant itself will be blended with 0.1% MGO to create a 0.5% VLSFO. Please Contact Us! Singapore has two main sources of natural gas: Piped Natural Gas … There has been speculation that this may be allowable if, for example, suitable fuels are not available or if a scrubber has been ordered, but not yet installed. Finished Diesel/Gasoil Price (Non-Marine) 1. S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts that around 2,200 vessels … Rotterdam IFO 380 Price Today USD/MT, Live & Historical Price Charts The consensus forecast is the sulphur penalty at times will be high, as the … In a worst case, HSFO prices may drop to a level where HSFO becomes an attractive fuel for power plants. • Price & Margin forecasts updated quarterly Widely used in oil industry for strategic planning Short-term Crude Oil and Refining Outlook Separate market reports for tactical planning Other Market Publications LPG studies North American Natural Gas Global LNG Petrochemical Feedstocks Special Topic Studies Residual Fuel Canadian Oil Sands China’s Rapid Growth. There were no trades for this contract during the time period chosen. IEA 2019. Detailed forecast table. The average oil price within the current or previous consumption month(s) is used as the index price. ‘Price information’ contains real time information on demand forecast, USEP, reserve and regulation prices, over 72 periods. Careers | HSFO is listed in the World's largest and most authoritative dictionary database of abbreviations and acronyms. The curves remain relatively flat despite "there being widespread concern that there may be insufficient supply to meet demand for LSFO," says Dunphy. Will there still be incentive for this arb to be open with a low 3.5% HSFO price and extremely uncertain demand volumes? Rising Regional averages - Click for full details. Global HSFO prices have plummeted to near two-year lows this month as the market begins to feel pressure from the upcoming IMO 2020 rule. European HSFO values near 2019 prices, bucking expectations Sep 8 The spread between physical prices for 3.5%S FOB Rotterdam barges in 2019 and 2020 reached as close as $4/mt year on year on Sept. 1, assessed at $257/mt, before the spread widened again. This index was originally developed in 1960 as a single metric to quantity the sophistication of different refineries. Several majors have already announced they will have 0.5% VLSFO blends available in the major ports, however current blends are priced at near-parity to 0.1% MGO. The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. Switch away from HSFO to low-sulphur fuels e.g. Crude oil predictions and projections. Click here. This means ships will need chemical additives on-board, plus a sludge removal plan which can complicate operations and increase costs. Discover how you can access our oil prices, news & analysis $20.00 Lanshan. Vanino. Crude oil price analysis and research that covers crude oil futures and oil price forecasts. Existing flows of 3.5% HSFO will likely stop. The demand for 1% LSFO is already reflected in the high spread vs 3.5% HSFO. US shale powers global oil market transformation. Now consider the supply chain for Singapore of 3.5% HSFO: 3.5% HSFO is typically sourced from the Baltics or Caribbean and then transported to Singapore via VLCC. Orders will slow once the HSFO price rises past a point that justifies the investment. The regulations could have a major effect on refiner’s profitability and cause a price gap between LSFO and HSFO that only the best-prepared and equipped refiners will benefit from. Fuel efficiency will be key as bunker prices rise. We are instead now less constructive on distillate cracks, with a forecast close to market forwards ($18.50/bbl vs. market forwards at $19/bbl), in part due to weaker expected economic growth. 1: Rotterdam/Antwerp: $ 300: $ 375 $20.00 Bremerhaven. The average oil price within the current or previous consumption month(s) is used as the index price. Historically, Naphtha reached an all time high of 1180.47 in July of 2008. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global demand growth in 2019 for a second consecutive month. In theory we estimate AGL’s exposure to falling prices could be … Dec 21. The price is in US Dollar per 1 oil barrell. US shale oil prospects, 2010-2024 Open. © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. Even with the uptake in retrofit scrubber demand and the widespread installation on newbuilds, the most optimistic figures indicate that 3,800 ships will have scrubbers by 2020. In 2021, the forecast natural gas share declines to 34% in response to a forecast increase in the price ofnatural gas delivered to electricity generators from an average of $2.44/MMBtu in 2020 to $3.38/MMBtu in 2021 (an increase of 39%) . Still have questions? World 3 [? marine gas oil, diesel, blends of HSFO and low sulphur distillate, low-sulphur residual fuel oil or hybrid fuels 2. $20.00 Sovetskaya Gavan. As a result, 68% of bunker demand has to be fulfilled by 0.1% MGO – more than double what it is now. While a majority of Asian sour crude is priced against the Dubai benchmark, it is generally accepted that the Dubai benchmark itself is a derivative of Brent. The OPEC+ countries need to cut output by about 0.3 mb/d in January to comply with their new agreement. … Platts Oil helps to develop, connect & explain the market price of crude oil and oil products. World 3 [? Market Insights and Analytics Commodity Prices and Essential Market Data Real-Time News, Prices and Analysis Maps and Geospatial Data Forward Curves and Risk Valuation Data. Refining Conversion Reinvestment Economics 1. Prices for fuel oil in Rotterdam in May are trading at about an $8.20 a barrel discount to Brent crude, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil price forecast for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. $114/mt). Refinery complexity is commonly measured using the Nelson Complexity Index (NCI). Main impact in first year but manageable over time. At 100.7 mb/d, the global total was down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago, with OPEC supply 2.4 mb/d lower. Natural gas prices are closely linked to oil prices - either the High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) price or Brent price. $114/mt). This is happening because US shale is able to respond to price signals more swiftly than other sources of supply - in fact even more US supply could be on the way if prices rise beyond where they are today. Prices of both 3.5% sulphur US Gulf HSFO and 0.5% sulphur VLSFO fell by 65.5% and 59.5%, respectively, from January 29 to March 27, along with the rest of the oil market. This would cause the total spread between HSFO-MGO to be $680/mt (almost double current levels), creating a large incentive for both shipowners and suppliers to find a solution. Ship operators have a choice of 2020 compliance options: 1. They are usually determined by the stock exchange, using the closing daily values for the monthly data, and normally expressed as simple arithmetic averages of the daily data. The remainder of demand will be met by marine gasoil (MGO). In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. OPEC Forecasts Falling HFO Prices and More Scrubber Orders File image. HSFO demand will creep back up in the coming years as more scrubbers are installed. In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. S Korea HSFO differential hits 4-month high on tight supply 9th December 2020 12:41 GMT Tight supply of the 380 CST high sulfur bunker fuel grade in South Korea has led its differential to benchmark FOB Singapore high sulfur fuel oil cargo assessments to a 4-month high of $73.06/mt on Dec. 9, S&P Global Platts data showed. ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. Wholesale prices are forecast to fall in NSW and Victoria every year until 2025 with the exception of NSW in 2023. …and Beyond. IMO 2020 and lower sulfur-content requirements. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | BunkerEx Limited © 2019, BunkerEx: Our View on 2020 (Hint: Say NO to Scrubbers, for now…). The reference price will be a price in USD and cents per barrel equal to the average of the settlement prices of the USGC HSFO (Platts) Future for the contract month. BunkerEx, a company focused on technology solutions for bunker procurement has already seen demand from shipping companies for EUA, CER and VER Carbon Credits as a hedge against upcoming regulations. November's figures may equal … Data can be downloaded in CSV format for periods covering up to 31 days per file. Singapore: HSFO Sales Rally on Scrubber-related Demand. 0.1% MGO will likely be the dominant bunker fuel of choice however refinery supply restrictions will make this much more expensive. 25% of future bunker demand will come from new compliant fuels. Natural gas prices are closely linked to oil prices - either the High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) price or Brent price. This leads to the forecast of price differences between LSFO and HSFO. Singapore has two main sources of natural gas: Piped Natural Gas (PNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. Jan. 1 - 3, 2021; Oil LNG Natural Gas Electric Power Coal Shipping Petrochemicals Metals Agriculture Energy Transition. Access real-time data, charts, analytics and news from anywhere at anytime. The volume of oil demand affected by this change is significant. Disclaimer  |  Privacy Policy  |  Cookie Policy  |  Terms of Use  |  Data Terms of Use  |  Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement  |  Report a Security Concern. Even using a [technically incorrect] assumption that sulphur blends linearly, the mixes required to turn a 2.47% HSFO (global average) to 0.5% would be 83% of MGO and 17% of HSFO. If we assume that the 12,000 are all the heavier fuel consuming ships, ships could continue to use 2.5m bpd of HSFO in 2020. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? Dec 21. 34 industry leaders from companies such as Maersk, Cargill and Trafigura recently committed to zero-carbon emission fuels by 2030. 3-Day Price Trend Falling . LNG has been touted as a potential solution, however even with a high prediction on the number of LNG vessels (600 by 2020 – source: DNV GL) it still remains at <1% of total bunker demand. Date Price $/mt Change High Low Spread; M Dec 21: 375.50-12.50: 378.00: 373.00: 5.00: F Dec 18: 388.00 +0.50 Furthermore, the cargoes are then stored, broken down and sold ex-wharf in small lots to barge operators: will there still be barge suppliers dedicated to delivering 3.5% HSFO fuel? Indeed, the bunker fuel demand landscape will change dramatically in 2020. Analysis of the forward price curves of HSFO, LSFO and MGO do not yet reflect the scale of the change and may lead some to underestimate problem. He estimates that bunker suppliers will buy in October and shippers will buy from November. Oil 2019 Analysis & Forecast to 2024 CERAWeek, Houston, 11 March 2019 IEA SINGAPORE FUEL OIL 180 CST (PLATTS) FUTURES, Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement. Singapore Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts However this has key ‘known unknowns’ such as specifications (currently no standards) and stability (can 2 different types of 0.5% VLSFO fuel be mixed?). The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. Conference ERCOT sees 15.5% reserve margin, up from 2020's 12.6%, down from May forecast. In 2016, the International Marine Organization (IMO) agreed to limit the sulfur content in all marine fuels to 0.5 percent beginning in 2020, with the exception of fuel burned in Sulfur Emission Control Area regions, which are already at lower sulfur limits. The price is in US Dollar per 1 oil barrell. The October 2019 price for HSFO fell to 64.7 USD/bbl from 78.6 USD/bbl in October 2018. Oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.2 mb/d, supported partly by prices remaining relatively subdued, higher global GDP growth than last year and by progress in settling trade disputes. HSFO's record discounts to crude globally helped bring about a demand recovery, led by US refiner buying. Port HSFO-380 VLSFO 0.5% ULSFO 0.1% MGO Deliv. The cost of 0.1% MGO could go as high as $900/mt from current levels. The impact on 3.5% HSFO. Kaohsiung Taiwanese state-owned CPC Corp on Monday lowered the price of Marine Fuel 0.5%, IFO380 and MGO by $5. Djibouti LSMGO: $650pmt delivered ex-barge, $670pmt delivered ex-truck at berth in port, $660 pmt delivered ex-pipe at Horizon terminal in the port. $20.00 Qingdao . In addition, the quantities available (whether delivered or ex-wharf) are a major uncertainty. This assists in assessing the true energy cost to shipping companies and can be compared on a MJ/$ basis. $20.00 Rizhao. The volume of oil demand affected by this change is significant. Demand for the shipping industry’s main fuel is widely expected to collapse like never before in 2020, so it might come as a surprise that its value is soaring. Click here. Understand how CME Group can help you navigate new initial margin regulatory and reporting requirements. When exercised against, the Clearing House, at its discretion, selects sellers against which to exercise on a pro rata basis Strike Price Intervals . We think physical bunker suppliers will be reluctant to sell non-compliant HSFO to vessels without a scrubber for fear of reprisal from port states. It’s impact will likely be felt closer to 2030 as many new-build ships have dual fuel engines and the supply network has time to mature. Given the recent bad press about open-loop scrubbers, closed-loop scrubbers are likely to be the only option. 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